Research ledgerThe misses
The misses
count too.
A verdict belongs to a particular test. Failed does not mean impossible; supported does not mean a profitable trading strategy.
Every result
| Question | Finding | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Calm coins versus wild coins › | Calmer coins usually beat the typical altcoin. They did not beat Bitcoin over the compounded test. | ✓ SUPPORTED |
| Can a chart fingerprint forecast the next move? › | Recognition worked. The original hourly forecast did not clear the comparison or cost tests. | ✕ FAILED |
| Have other coins behaved like TIA? › | Eleven historical windows shared the chart and measured state; several belonged to the same market episode. | ◊ EXPLORATORY |
| Does activity move between coin groups? › | Apparent handoffs repeat, but timing shuffles produce plenty of repetition too. | ◊ INCONCLUSIVE |
| Can we recognize a recovery starting? › | Three exchange-data bottoming signs did worse than none in this test. | ✕ FAILED |
| Can market-wide gauges time Bitcoin? › | The tested gauges did not establish useful direction prediction over 7 or 30 days. | ✕ FAILED |
| Do planetary cycles explain market direction? › | The tested oscillator did not show a reliable relationship. | ✕ FAILED |