Can market-wide gauges time Bitcoin?
The tested gauges did not establish useful direction prediction over 7 or 30 days.
The verdict
✕ FAILEDThe tested gauges did not establish useful direction prediction over 7 or 30 days.
What we tried
We asked whether funding, taker flow, unusual volume, breadth, dispersion and correlation helped time Bitcoin’s next 7 or 30 days.
What happened
None of the tested measures established a significant direction relationship in this experiment; all reported p-values exceeded 0.2.
What this means
That does not mean sentiment is irrelevant. These are particular measurements and targets. They do not cover every community, narrative, exchange or time horizon.
Evidence record
Published figures are from the original experiment summaries and the approved research handoff, dated October 7, 2026. They describe the implementation tested, not every version of the underlying idea.
Published evidence manifest ›